What are climate models and how accurate are they?

Climate models are sets of mathematical equations based on the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology that are used to understand Earth’s changing climate. Because climate cannot be studied in a laboratory, these models are run on computers to make projections of how the climate is changing.

Why is there uncertainty in climate models?

Climate predictions and projections are subject to uncertainty resulting from the incomplete knowledge of initial conditions of the relevant components and internal variability of the climate system, which depends on the time scale being considered.

What are climate models predicting?

The Short Answer: To predict future climate, scientists use computer programs called climate models to understand how our planet is changing. Climate models work like a laboratory in a computer. They allow scientists to study how different factors interact to influence a region’s climate.

What is the main source of uncertainty in the models?

Model uncertainty has two main sources: the mathematical structure of the model and the parameter values.

What are four sources of uncertainty in climate models today?

In particular the following uncertainty sources are identified and discussed: greenhouse gas (GHG) emission/concentration scenario, model configuration (or intra-model) and bias, internal unforced variability due to the non-linearities of the climate system, and downscaling uncertainty.

What are climate change models?

Climate models, also known as general circulation models or GCMs, use mathematical equations to characterize how energy and matter interact in different parts of the ocean, atmosphere, land.

What is the biggest source of uncertainty for climate models?

Three major sources of uncertainty are considered: the choice of climate model, the choice of emissions scenario, and the internal variability of the modeled climate system.